This Guy Not That Guy

Weekly lineup choices are always tricky, that is especially true during week 1 of the season.  While you can look at last year’s defensive stats and pre-season games, they really don’t tell you much about what’s actually going to happen on the field.  For those tough choices I’ve put together a list of players I would choose and players I would not choose.  Let’s get into it…

QBs

Chose this guy…

Russell Wilson – He’s playing at home against Miami, a team who’s defense really struggled this pre-season, has a first time defensive coordinator and is travelling over 3,000 miles to play a great Seattle team.  Wilson is a lock for 200+ yards and a couple of TDs and could add some fantasy points with his feet too.  Do not hesitate to play him.

Not this guy…

Cam Newton – So, I LOVE Cam Newton as a dynasty prospect, just want to put that out there.  But week 1 against Denver, in Denver?  I don’t think so.  If anyone can overcome that Denver defense Newton can, but I’m not going to bet on it.  I actually have him on one of my rosters and I’m playing Kirk Cousins instead, which leads me to the next…

Chose this guy…

Kirk Cousins – Last year he was great at home.  This week he gets the Pittsburgh Defense which gave up 23 fantasy points a game last year and did very little to shore up their defense in the off-season.  Cousins is a sneaky play for a 3 TD game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leaned on with Matt Jones still recovering from injury and nobody reliable behind him.

Not this guy…

Philip Rivers – Kansas City is a sneaky good team.  Rivers and his San Diego crew have to travel to their division rivals to play week 1 and I think KC will make it hard on Rivers.  KC had one of the best defenses for the first half of last year before the wheels fell off a bit with injuries.  At the beginning of the season, they will be tough to beat at home.

RBs

Chose this guy…

Lamar Miller – It’s Miller’s first game in Houston and he’s going to want to make a good impression.  Fortunately, he has the Bears coming to town and while they have improved their defense during the off-season, they will still have trouble containing Miller.  a 100 yards and 2 TDs is not out of the question here.

Not this guy…

Ezekiel Elliot – Another guy I love from a dynasty perspective but not this game.  The Giants are a only so-so defense but this will be a game without Tony Romo and Elliott starting his first game after missing time during training camp.  Again, he could explode, but I’m not going to bet on it.

Chose this guy…

Devonta Freeman – He gets no love from the dynasty community.  And I understand why, he’s not the most athletic RB even on his own team.  That said, he’s decisive, hard working and great in the passing game.  Against division rivals Tampa Bay, I feel like this may be a barn burner.  At home, I think Freeman will rock out.

Not this guy…

Eddie Lacy – There is no doubt Lacy has been trending upward this off-season, P90x and all.  In week 1 the pack goes to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars which in the past would sound like a romp but this year will be different for the Jags.  They are strong on both sides of the ball and will compete with the pack at home.  Look for Lacy to get hit behind the line early and often, it will be tough sledding for him out there.

WRs

Chose this guy…

Amari Cooper – Trying to stay away from obvious starters, Cooper is a guy who would start most weeks but could be a flex option against difficult back fours.  This week he gets New Orleans and their sieve like defense.  Do they really think James Lauranitis is an upgrade?  Anyway, Cooper will have a field day and Oakland will win this matchup in the Superdome.

Not this guy…

Alshon Jeffery– Going back to Houston with this pick, I think Houston’s defense is under-rated and even if they are without JJ Watt (which is a distinct possibility), Houston’s defense can cause fits to Jay Cutler and the passing game.

Chose this guy…

TY Hilton – Indy gets Detroit at home to start the season.  While I’m not enamored with either team, with Andrew Luck back at the helm Hilton is good for a deep TD and some underneath work.  I see a TD and 80 yards as a minimum against Detroits rebuilding defense.

Not this guy…

Jarvis Landry – I like Devante Parker and Kenny Stills but Jarvis Landry is still the leader of this pack until shown otherwise.  Unfortunately, as mentioned above with Russell Wilson, Miami is going to Seattle for week 1 and in all likely hood is going to get throttled.  Landry will have a high catch rate but low yardage as that swarming defense will keep him in check.

TEs

Chose this guy…

Jordan Reed   Reed seems to be Cousins go-to guy.  If Cousins does well Reed seems to do well too.  Cousins is going to do well against Pittsburgh at home this week, look for Reed to do the same.

Not this guy…

Zach Ertz – I like his matchup against Cleveland’s DII quality defense.  But, word is Carson Wentz is going to start and while that is good for Carson’s dynasty prospects, it is not good for the passing games prospects in week 1.  Ertz is a sit if you can afford it, until Wentz proves he can get him the ball.

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