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One of the beautiful things about the Dynasty MetriX (DMX) score is that it rates all prospects of the same position on the same scale. Many times you will here a well used meme about a player like “he’s really fast” or “he’s incredibly agile” and then you look at his negative speed or agility score in the DMX framework, which means he’s less speedy or agile than the average RB, and you wonder how the heck did these people become “experts”. The DMX framework is a statistical comparative study that takes the emotion out of the equation and focuses on all of the quantitative aspects of a prospect.
Today, I’d like to point out a situation that I have found in this year’s rookie RB class. It bears noting that there are five rookie RBs that seem to be undervalued in the current class. When you look at the table below, you’ll see the top 17 rookie RB prospects for 2017 with a segment of their DMX scores (you can find a key to the table below it). First thing that you notice is it is a very deep class, with decile 3 players all the way down to #11 on this list. I’ve highlighted in yellow five ADPs for RBs which I like very much who are very undervalued currently. D’Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols, Tarik Cohen, Aaron Jones and Brian Hill are all being drafted below several of the RBs rated lower than them in DMX rankings.
Let’s start with Foreman who’s DMX score puts him smack dab in the middle of the four players being chosen at the top of the first round. While Fournette, Cook, Mixon and McCaffrey are all worth those rankings, Foreman is too, but he’s not being drafted there. He’s being drafted in the middle of the second round. The reason is that all four of those players are in the mix to start right away while Foreman is not. This is where DMX helps you, because Foreman is a decile 1 RB you can get easily attain at the bottom of the first round or early second. DMX points out that his perception does not meet the reality that he has just as much potential as the four guys going in the top 5 picks. I would take him and be patient and the payoff could be incredible.
Now let’s move down to McNichols, who is being drafted late second or early third, well below Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt who both have lesser DMX scores than him. Again, I would take McNichols in the second or early third no problem and while the Tampa RB situation is muddled, he certainly has the chops to emerge down the road.
Tarik Cohen is a unique back and he’s undervalued due to his diminutive size. At 179 lbs. he’ll never be a lead back but he could be a third down scatback that racks up PPR points. in the middle of the 5th round I would take that chance for sure, given that his DMX score of 0.73 puts him in decile 3 which gives him a solid score despite his size. BTW, Darren Sproles’ DMX score is 0.76. Something to think about late in your draft!
Finally, we have Aaron Jones and Brian Hill, both solid DMX decile 3 RBs being chosen as low picks because they are log-jammed on their respective teams, Green Bay and Atlanta. Given that those logjams may take a while to unwind, I would say both Jones and Hill are great buy and hold candidates that very well could out-play their draft position. Though it will take a few years so you’ll have to be patient. It’s interesting that Jamaal Williams is being drafted at 22.2 ADP while Jones is 41.1 even though Jones has the better DMX score. I would take advantage of that disparity late in your draft.
The bottom-line is that our predictive model shows that D’Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols, Tarik Cohen, Aaron Jones and Brian Hill are being undervalued currently in early rookie drafting. Keep an eye on these five and if they are available at the right time in your draft, pick them up for a value. You may be getting a better valued RB at a lower price than those being drafted above them.
LP = Leg Power
ATH=Athleticism score which is weighted avg. of Spd, Agil, LP & Str
DPOS=Draft position score
AWP=Age weighted production from their last season in college