NFL Draft Dynasty Impact – First Round

The first round of the 2016 NFL draft is in the books and it’s a great time to take a look at the dynasty value of the day 1 draftees.  I’m going to go down from one to 31 (NE lost their pick due to deflategate) and provide my initial thoughts on dynasty value for each player.  Let’s get to it…

  1. Jared Goff, QB LA – Goff goes into a situation with a better than average defense and a solid running game.  He’s not going to be asked to do to much.  Honestly, IMO he’s not as good as Mariota or Winston from last year and this move reeks of desperation on Jeff Fisher’s part.  He’s a 2nd round rookie pick at best at this point.
  2. Carson Wentz, QB PHI – To me Wentz goes to a better situation than Goff coaching wise and has slightly better long term QB skills.  Again, not better than Mariota/Winston IMO, but could develop over time like Blake Bortles.  High 2nd round rookie pick.
  3. Joey Bosa, DE SD – The first surprise came early this year, SD was expected to go tackle and Bosa was supposed to drop.  Bosa’s IDP value takes a hit here as the Chargers play a 3-4 defense and DEs don’t typically produce fantasy numbers in that scheme.  Bosa moves to 4th round in my book and undoubtedly due to his name he will be overdrafted this year.
  4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL – Elliott’s draft value just went through the stratosphere!  Much hyperbole will be said about Elliott this summer but he’s the best RB in this draft going to the best situation.  First pick in all rookie drafts, bar none.
  5. Jalen Ramsey, DB JAX – His value will be tied to weather he ends up being a corner or safety.  Word is it will be corner, which makes him virtually undraftable in rookie drafts.  He will be picked in the fourth or fifth round in many drafts though.
  6. Ronnie Stanley, OT BAL – No dynasty value here of course but will help the Ravens offense especially in the pass game as he’s seen more of a pass protector than road grader.
  7. DeForest Buckner, DE SF – He will be a great 3-4 DE period.  He’s very athletic at 290 pounds with long arms and rangy.  As mentioned with Bosa though, this knocks him down from an IDP perspective.  I would make him a fifth round pick in rookie drafts.
  8. Jack Conklin, OT TEN – The first trade of the night when you don’t include the top 2 picks.  No dynasty value but does help Marcus Mariota and Demarco Murray a bit.
  9. Leonard Floyd, OLB CHI – trade number two of the night and Floyd goes to a great situation.  That said, he’ll be an OLB in a 3-4 which is not a high tackle position.  Think Von Miller, outstanding NFL talent, middling fantasy producer.  He’s an IDP free agent in my book, low dynasty value and no need to draft but could be a taxi squad hold.
  10. Eli Apple, CB NYG – CBs are not draftable in rookie drafts IMO, so nothing to see here from a fantasy draft perspective. CBs are so variable from year to year in terms of fantasy pts scored, it’s hard to place elite value on any that are not exceptional and there are no exceptional talents at CB in this draft, including Jalen Ramsey.
  11. Vernon Hargreaves, CB TB – see Eli Apple
  12. Sheldon Rankins, DT NO – He is the premier 3-technique DT in the draft and he goes to an immediate start situation.  As dynasty DTs go this is as good as it gets.  He is a low four, high fifth round rookie pick for leagues that start a DT position, otherwise he is not draftable.
  13. Laremy Tunsil, OT MIA – certainly a value here when he was rumored to be the first pick at one point.  Fins need to protect Tannehill and this goes a long way to help.  Tannehill and Jay Ajayi get a bump here.
  14. Karl Joseph, S OAK – first safety off the board and goes to the Raiders an up and coming defense.  initial thought is he’s a forth round rookie pick as an IDP safety with great instincts and power.
  15. Corey Coleman, WR CLE – RG3s new best friend?  I actually really like this pick and think Coleman is one of the few WRs that have a dynasty future in this draft. No doubt in my mind Hugh Jackson has a plan for him. May take some time to develop but a top 5 pick in my mind, even in Cleveland.
  16. Taylor Decker, OT DET – 4th OT taken in the draft and helps the pass game of Detroit.  Stafford takes a ton of sacks and this may bring some stability to the pass game but also a good run blocker
  17. Keanu Neal, S ATL – goes to a great place with Dan Quinn as the head coach who was the architect of the legion of boom in Seattle.  Neal moves up in my mind to fourth round consideration.
  18. Ryan Kelly, C IND – yawner here from a fantasy perspective but could help in the run game as an interior lineman.
  19. Shaq Lawson, Edge BUF – the bills play a 3-4 scheme and if he goes to OLB it kills his IDP value.  Tough spot for him to go from a fantasy perspective.  He just became undraftable in my book.
  20. Darron Lee, OLB/ILB NYJ – this one will take time to sort out.  If he plays inside for the Jets, he could be a solid 3rd rd. IDP pick.  If he plays outside a fifth rounder at best.  Superior athlete though, so intangibles are all there.
  21. Will Fuller, WR HOU – don’t like where he goes here as he’s no better than a WR2 to a young DeAndre Hopkins.  Second rounder based on location.  Also submarines Jaelon Strong’s dynasty value.
  22. Josh Doctson, WR WAS – LOVE this pick and if Cousins continues to develop Docston could be his WR1 for a long time.  Top 5 rookie pick in Jay Gruden’s Offense.  Will not be WR1 to start but won’t take long.
  23. Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN – hate this location and don’t love his NFL skill set.  This is a run first offense for the foreseeable future too.  He may go in the first round in many drafts but he’s no better than a second or third round pick in rookie drafts in my mind
  24. William Jackson III, CB CIN – see CB notes above.
  25. Artie Burns, CB PIT – Ugh, no dynasty relevance save for rookie CB theory fans
  26. Paxton Lynch, QB DEN – Very lucky landing spot here.  Puts Lynch into the third round in rookie drafts where he may have been a fourth/fifth if he went somewhere he’d have to sit for long.
  27. Kenny Clark, DT GB – will be a big space eater in the middle of the 3-4 Packer defense which is absolutely worthless from a fantasy perspective.  Move on.
  28. Joshua Garnett, G SF – Chip Kelly is up to his odd shenanigans again, trading into the first round for a nobody.  Will probably help Carlos Hyde a bit but that’s it.
  29. Robert Nkemdiche, DT ARI – he goes to a 3-4 defense where he’ll probably play DE rather than DT.  That said, it’s very unlikely he will have IDP relevance in the 3-4. He’ll probably get picked before Rankins in some drafts because of his name but it may be hard for him to be fantasy relevant in this defense, avoid him IMO.
  30. Vernon Butler, DT CAR – interesting as they already have Star Lotulolai and Kwan Short so he is probably a rotational backup to start and insurance in case they can’t resign on of those guys.  Not draftable as an IDP prospect.
  31. Germain Ifedi, OT SEA – will help Thomas Rawls and Russell Wilson.

 

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