The Case for Jamison Crowder

Jamison Crowder’s DMX score is 0.49. Positive is good, though his ATH score of (0.81) was concerning coming out of Duke a couple of years ago (read up on Dynasty MetriX). With this DMX score, based on our proprietary prediction model, he is a Decile 3 prospect with a 12% chance to succeed. Going into this third season it certainly seems that he will buck that trend and be a valuable contributor in Washington, which will make him a valuable contributor on your fantasy squad.

Crowder came out of Duke, a smaller football school but still competing against ACC competition. He is a small and quick WR but fell in the draft due to a very slow forty time. The thinking was “How can he be a slot receiver without the speed to accelerate through open spaces.” He has certainly proved that theory wrong. His stats were very good for a rookie, having found a home as a slot receiver in Washington’s developing offense. As you can see, his stats improved from that in year 2:

2015 16 78 59 604 10.2 2 63
2016 16 99 67 847 12.6 7 29
Total 32 177 126 1451 11.5 9

The most impressive growth was in TDs where he went from 2 his rookie season to 7 his sophomore season. He also increased his yards per reception year-over-year, even though that statistic is usually low for slot receivers since they do much of their work in the short area passing game. Finally, based on standard scoring he went from ranked in the 60th decile to 29th in fantasy production in 2017.

I predict Crowder will break the thousand yard barrier in year 3. There are some great reasons for optimism with him this year:

  • He’s the most tenured WR and has worked with Kirk Cousins for three years now.
  • In recent OTAs Crowder has lined up outside as the second wide receiver in two receiver sets, which means he will be on the field a lot more than in the past.
  • This offense is still developing and promises to continue to put up stats in 2017
  • In Dynasty, the WR1 in Washington, Terrelle Pryor, is on a one-year deal. This indicates there is no reason why Crowder’s involvement in the offense should subside anytime soon.

The bottom line is that Crowder was a decent WR3 last year and has every reason to jump into WR2 production in 2017 and beyond. Other than an injury slowing him down, he should rank between 10th to 20th in WR production. If you can trade for him cheaply with an owner that isn’t paying attention, I would do so. If you have him, he is a great depth piece and you should definitely keep him.

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