With any new prospect scoring devise it’s important to set a foundation and that is what this article is all about. I’ve compiled 17 years worth of information going back to 2001 into a comprehensive database in order to set a baseline for expectations on the new crop of rookies that come through annually. By going back into history and calculating the Dynasty MetriX (DMX) Score, I’m able to develop a projection model to compare the DMX score of historic players to actual fantasy results for each player and determine how often the metric hits the mark. Here’s how I do this:
- As mentioned, I’ve compiled 23 metrics for players going back to 2001. By calculating the DMX scores going back that far I can then put each player into a decile (10 equal groups of players for each position). By putting historic players into deciles, I can then quickly look at a DMX score of a current prospect and put them into the appropriate decile.
- I then pull in the fantasy points scored by each player in their first five years in the NFL. Using only the first five years allows me to have a discrete period of time and to compare that time among all players.
- By associating the fantasy points scored by each player in their first five seasons and the players DMX score, I create a “hit-rate” by defining a player “hitting” as being in the top 20% of fantasy scoring over the first five years of their career, over the 16 year time period. I can then summarize hit rates by decile and tell you how often a player in that decile will “hit” or not.
For example, 68% of RBs in the first decile hit (are among top 20 fantasy scorers in their position). That number is 65% for the first decile of WRs, 78% for first decile of TEs and 64% for first decile of QBs. Last year Ezekiel Elliott was a first decile prospect with a DMX score of 1.72. Because he went to Dallas it was pretty easy for most folks to assume that he would “hit” as an NFL RB. Derrick Henry had a DMX score of 1.41 last year. Not as easy a choice and he went much lower in many rookie drafts. Derrick Henry will have to earn his fantasy points in Tennessee with Demarco Murray (DMX Score 0.75) in front of him. With DMX we can safely say that Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott both have about a 68% chance to hit as an NFL RB. After year one, knowing that Zeke balled out and Henry was stuck behind Murray the whole time, does that change your perspective? No, it shouldn’t because Henry is still the prospect he was a year ago, an elite prospect, and will have another 4 years to prove that and there is a strong chance over those 4 years that he will prove it. And this is where DMX scores can make a difference.
In our premium content we have a ton of prospect profiles and strategy documents using DMX to the fullest advantage. Comparing ADP to DMX values, explaining differences in scores and studying 17 years of history to help you draft better. If you draft better consistently, maximize the value of every pick down to the last, you’ll develop your team faster, win consistently and dominate your league. Our projection model is the best in the industry.
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