Dynasty Rookie Sleepers Worth Your Roster

Every year dynasty football fantasy drafts come and go and there are a handful of players that are not on rosters but should be. Like the boy who gets picked last when teams are split for a schoolyard baseball game, these rookies are being left in the cold by dynasty owners. Whether it’s perceived lack of talent, lack of opportunity or just plain lack of interest, there are plenty of quality rookies not being rostered this year that are certainly worth considering. So, here’s my irreverent list of dynasty rookies worth your roster. I’m considering anyone on MFL who has an ADP less than 60, the typical amount of picks in a 5 round rookie draft with 12 teams. Consider these guys…

  1. The guy below Big Ben – As a QB, being drafted behind a Super Bowl winning QB is a recipe for failure. Very few of these guys go on to stardom. Yes, Yes. Steve Young did it. Aaron Rodgers did it. I’m sure there’s others that don’t come to mind too. But it’s rare. So, why would I tell you that Josh Dobbs is worth your roster? Josh Dobbs’ Dynasty MetriX score is 0.56 which according to my prediction model is a decile 4 QB DMX score. As noted in my earlier article (Subscription needed), decile 4 is the cutoff line below which QBs just do not succeed in the NFL. Dobbs makes is above that line and is now behind a guy who is talking off an on about retirement. Retirement still could be a few years away for Ben Roethlisberger so Dobbs has a chance to learn from the best and prepare. It will take some time but it almost always does for QBs anyway. Having Dobbs on the roster before anyone else gives you a shot at Big Ben’s potential replacement.
  2. The guy that fell off the Earth – Seriously, it sure seems like he did. What happened to Brian Hill? He as a trendy sleeper in pre-draft articles and he was drafted in the 5th round which isn’t aweful for an RB. But he landed in ATL behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Ouch! Here’s the thing though, Hill deserved the pre-draft hype and even though he fell into a disastrous situation for dynasty purposes doesn’t mean he’s worthless. He’s a big back with decent speed and agility. He has a decile 3 DMX score of 0.54 and is my 11th ranked RB in this class. He’s currently the 24th RB being chosen in MFL rookie drafts. Ouch indeed! That’s disgraceful. Pick this dude up and hold him until he gets a shot. It may be a while but he’ll be worth the wait.
  3. The IDP guy who doesn’t believe in mermaids – You didn’t think I’d do this article without considering IDP, did you? In Miami, their starting defensive ends are 35 and 32. And one of them believes that mermaids are real. Seriously, you can’t make this stuff up. Annnnyway, back to the story. So, Charles Harris is a first round pick, playing behind two ancient (but solid) ends and has been doing well in mini camps. For IDP guys, what more do you need? Yes, he will be in a rotation his rookie year. Yes, it will take time for him to get to full time status. But how many rookie DEs play full time anyway? Harris is going to be half of a new set of DEs in Miami in the next couple of years, so the sooner you get on the train, the better!
  4. The tiny school athlete drafted into an elite offense – Let’s get this out in the open. Robert Davis could be the next Jeff Janis. Studly athlete from a super small school who just never really gets it going in the NFL. Davis is from Georgia State. He didn’t have great stats because Georgia State’s offense was historically bad. He’s got a long uphill climb to relevance in the NFL, as did Janis coming out of little Saginaw Valley State. And similar to Janis, Davis is an absolute elite athlete. Why do I advise picking him up if he’s a Janis clone? Because you can get him for free on the wire as opposed to Janis who was being drafted as early as the third round a few years ago. Stashing him provides time to evaluate him and it only costs you a roster spot. He’s big, fast, in an elite offense and behind Terrell Pryor who’s on a one-year contract.

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