If you are a devoted dynasty fantasy football player, you know that figuring out what rookies to draft before their careers even start is hard. It can require combing through websites, articles and data; Many of you may buy a dynasty rookie draft guide from other sites that put a lot of that information at your fingertips but doesn’t bring it all together. You know from experience, that maybe one out of four or five of your annual rookie picks ends up being worth keeping in the long term.
What if I told you that I can make it so four or five of those picks would be valuable and worth keeping? Would you want to know how? How you can increase the efficacy of your rookie draft picks from 20% to 70% or higher?
This is the third year of my Dynasty MetriX (DMX) database and the third year I’m publishing the Dynasty Football Fan Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide. our 2019 is better than ever as we’ve continued to optimize the data, increase the amount of prospects in the database and increase the amount of information about those prospects.
If you want to learn more about how DMX works check out our free articles What is Dynasty MetriX Score and How to use Dynasty MetriX . The bottom line is that we use statistics on a cohort of NFL prospects going back in history to 2001 to estimate the probability that a prospect will “hit”. Hit being defined as having fantasy production in the first 5 years in the NFL that is in the top 20% of that position, since 2001.
I create a DMX score for each prospect using all available information including college production, NFL combine metrics, pro day metrics and draft position. I then compare that score to the historic scores in the DMX database and assign a decile to that score. Using the score and the decile together, you can increase the value of every one of your rookie picks, even the fourth and fifth rounders. The higher the DMX score and decile the prospect is, the better chance that they “hit” and so the more of these prospects you choose, the better your draft will be.
Let’s take a quick example of how DMX can help you draft. In 2017 the Green Bay Packers chose three RBs in the draft, you can see all of their 2017 draft picks here. They chose Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones and Devante Mays in that order, with a fourth, fifth and seventh round pick respectively. They also had Ty Montgomery on the roster who did well in the few games he started the prior year, so they went into the 2017 season with four RBs.
The standard line at the time was that Ty Montgomery, a converted wide receiver, was the lead back and that Jamaal Williams would get first crack at backup and third down duties as he was the highest draft pick. Our DMX database told a different story. Of the three RBs drafted, Aaron Jones had the highest DMX score. Here are their DMX scores:
You can see here, even though Jamaal Williams was picked higher, Aaron Jones had the better athletic profile, better college production (AWP=Age Weighted Production) and overall a better DMX score. Though none of these backs were top decile backs, Jones is decile 3, Williams is decile 4 and Mays is decile 8, the competition for snaps didn’t include anyone with a higher DMX or decile profile as the only other back was Ty Montgomery and he was converted from WR just one year prior. In other words, picking up Aaron Jones in the middle or late in your rookie draft was a great value pick.
Flash forward a couple of years and Aaron Jones has established himself as the top back in Green Bay. Montgomery was traded, Mays was cut and Jones beat out Williams for the RB1 position in a RBBC situation. This is the type of situation where my Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide and the DMX database helps tremendously. Finding value in the mid to lower parts of the draft builds the depth of your roster and is key to winning dynasty championships. Each year is a war of attrition, you need players that can produce when your star players go down, which happens to everyone.