This afternoon we learned that Eddie Lacy is leaving Green Bay and taking his talents Northwest to Seattle. As usual this was met with a cacophony of opinions from fantasy experts and by gosh, I want my voice heard too!
Eddie Lacy is still only 26 and in the prime years of a typical stud RBs career. Unfortunately for Lacy, he’s been in a downward spiral which led eventually to Green Bay giving up on him. His first two years were great but his last two were marred by injury and being out-of-shape physically. From a dynasty perspective he certainly has proven capable early in his career but his last two years leave a lot to be desired.
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Frankly, moving to Seattle doesn’t necessarily solve that problem. Seattle’s offensive line was graded the worst in the NFL by PFF last season, which is part of the reason why both Thomas Rawls and CJ Prosise could not stay on the field. Certainly Seattle’s O-line can improve next season (they can’t get any worse!) but it is unusual for O-lines to develop rapidly so barring some dramatic moves Seattle’s line will continue to be a work in progress in 2017.
Then we must consider that Thomas Rawls and CJ Prosise are still in Seattle. Lacy has never been a great receiving back so it bears noting that Prosise is excellent for the third-down role, which could mean Lacy is a two-down thumper in Seattle. Thomas Rawls has shown flashes of athleticism that Lacy simply doesn’t have at this point in his career. It also bears considering that Rawls will rotate in here and there at very least.
The bottom-line at this point in the off-season is this: Seattle is paying Lacy like a starter, so there is not doubt they intend to play him as often as he’s capable. It’s plausible that Lacy dominates touches, puts Rawls and Prosise on the sideline for long stretches and sets himself up for a long-term contract next off-season. Unfortunately, it’s also just as plausible that Lacy can’t control his weight (reports say that he was in the 260 lb. range when he visited Seattle), ends up being a rotational piece with Rawls or a two-down thumper ceding third down to Prosise. Either of these outcomes would put him in RB2/3 territory, so the downside risk is very real.
In startup leagues I would draft Lacy in the RB20-RB30 level. If you trade for him now, you will most likely overpay, so unless you can find an inexpensive deal for him, I would stay away for now.