Dynasty Football Fan Pre-Draft Expert Rookie Mock

Mid-April is the perfect time to do a rookie mock draft. We’re close enough to the NFL draft that people have a good sense of value.  By setting twitter ablaze with our #DFFExpertMock hashtag we took to this mock with only one rule: Offensive rookies only.What better way to mock than with a bunch of dynasty experts?  Here’s the run down of our cast of characters with their Twitter handles and websites:

Ken Clein – @DynastyFootball, Dynasty Football Fan
Tom Kislingbury – @TomDegenerate, Dynasty League Football
Jacob Fitzgerald – @Dynasty_Advice
Willie Lovato – @Fantasy Ranks, 247 Fantasy Football
Geoff Godfrey – @GeofftheScout
Jeff  –  @DynastySportsHQ, Dynasty Sports HQ
John-Paul Hurley – @FFDynastyTrades, Dynasty Trade Calc
Anthony Neil – @DynastyExpert
Tyler Guenthner – @DynastyHHPod, Dynasty Happy Hour Podcast
Danny Poague, Tyler Wales, David Heilman – @DynastyDorks, Dynasty Dorks

Round 1

1.01 1 @FantasyRanks McCaffrey, Christian FA RB
1.02 2 @GeoffTheScout Williams, Mike FA WR
1.03 3 @DynastyExpert Mixon, Joe FA RB
1.04 4 @DynastyDorks Fournette, Leonard FA RB
1.05 5 @DYNASTYFOOTBALL Davis, Corey FA WR
1.06 6 @Dynasty_Advice Cook, Dalvin FA RB
1.07 7 @FFDynastyTrades Smith-Schuster, JuJu FA WR
1.08 8 @DynastySportsHQ Ross, John FA WR
1.09 9 @TomDegenerate Godwin, Chris FA WR
1.10 10 @DynastyHHPod Howard, O.J. FA TE

This draft highlighted what most people are seeing this year, which is there is no one 1.01 that everyone wants. There are a top five group of guys and in any given draft one of those may be the first pick. In this draft it was Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is our highest rated RB from a Dynasty MetriX perspective (1.48)  and I feel pretty good that he will be a productive asset for some team. He will not be a workhorse but he can be a guy who gets 1,500 yards combined rushing and receiving, and who really cares how he splits that up? Of course, in PPR he’s especially valuable. It was interesting to see Williams and Mixon go before Fournette, Davis and Cook, though they are both high potential guys so it’s hard to quarrel with the thinking if you feel strongly about them.  The potential only reach here is Chris Godwin but as Tom and I discussed on Twitter, Godwin is rising quickly and while he’s not in the first round conversation in most pre-draft mocks, he’s probably going to be there post-draft, so Tom is ahead of the curve indeed.

Round 2

2.01 11 @DynastyHHPod Perine, Samaje FA RB
2.02 12 @TomDegenerate Kamara, Alvin FA RB
2.03 13 @DynastySportsHQ Kizer, DeShone FA QB
2.04 14 @FFDynastyTrades Samuel, Curtis FA WR
2.05 15 @Dynasty_Advice Foreman, D’Onta FA RB
2.06 16 @DYNASTYFOOTBALL Njoku, David FA TE
2.07 17 @DynastyDorks Henderson, Carlos FA WR
2.08 18 @DynastyExpert Jones, Zay FA WR
2.09 19 @GeoffTheScout Watson, Deshaun FA QB
2.10 20 @FantasyRanks Engram, Evan FA TE

I was surprised in the second round how late Evan Engram and David Njoku went, though it continued the theme of the first round where people stuck to “their guys”. Alvin Kamara also dropped out of the first round but was quickly swiped up at 2.02 by Tom. While I agree with many people that there is risk with Kamara, getting him at that point is a good value IMO. Our first two QBs came off the board in the second too, Kizer first and then Watson. Current ADP has Kizer going in the third so potentially Jeff could have waited another round, though these QBs are so close together in potential this year, it’s hard to blame Jeff for making a stand to get his guy.

Round 3

3.01 21 @FantasyRanks Hunt, Kareem FA RB
3.02 22 @GeoffTheScout Kupp, Cooper FA WR
3.03 23 @DynastyExpert Darboh, Amara FA WR
3.04 24 @DynastyDorks Westbrook, Dede FA WR
3.05 25 @DYNASTYFOOTBALL McNichols, Jeremy FA RB
3.06 26 @Dynasty_Advice Conner, James FA RB
3.07 27 @FFDynastyTrades Cannon, KD FA WR
3.08 28 @DynastySportsHQ Hood, Elijah FA RB
3.09 29 @TomDegenerate Williams, Jamaal FA RB
3.10 30 @DynastyHHPod Taylor, Taywan FA WR

As is typical round three saw second tier talent with decent potential come off the board. I like Taywan Taylor at 3.10. His DMX score of 0.81 is 9th best in this class though he was the 13th WR chosen. Kareem Hunt, Jeremy McNichols, James Connor, Elijah Hood and Jamaal Williams all have holes in there game but also have potential in the right schemes and are worthy of the third round choices they were here. Amara Darboh went higher than currently typical and was taken by Anthony. He had a spectacular combine and has some very raw talent to work with. I was also surprised that Kareem Hunt fell into the third round, I believe he is the highest potential pick in this round with Taylor being the best value.

Round 4

4.01 31 @DynastyHHPod Zamora, Ishmael FA WR
4.02 32 @TomDegenerate Stewart, ArDarius FA WR
4.03 33 @DynastySportsHQ Leggett, Jordan FA TE
4.04 34 @FFDynastyTrades Gallman, Wayne FA RB
4.05 35 @Dynasty_Advice Dupre, Malachi FA WR
4.06 36 @DYNASTYFOOTBALL Trubisky, Mitch FA QB
4.07 37 @DynastyDorks Williams, Joe FA RB
4.08 38 @DynastyExpert Mahomes, Patrick FA QB
4.09 39 @GeoffTheScout Butt, Jake FA TE
4.10 40 @FantasyRanks Ford, Isaiah FA WR

And in the final round you see a lot of guys being taken that are certainly not reaches but have a long road to stardom. Ishmael Zamora kicked this off as he is off the radar for many drafters but Tyler didn’t hesitate to take him. Zamora is a big bodied WR out of Baylor that was suspended for three games due to a video showing him abusing his dog. While I am always intrigued by big WRs available late in the draft, I watched tape of him and the biggest thing I noticed was that on plays that were not to him, he didn’t run routes. He pretty much stood on the sideline while the play went in the other direction. That type of effort won’t cut it in the NFL, so while I don’t blame Tyler for taking a chance in the 4th round, it’s not one I personally will be taking in drafts this summer. ArDarius Stewart, Wayne Gallman, Malachi Dupre, Joe Williams and Isaiah Ford all have traits to like. I really felt both Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes were under-drafted in this mock. I took Trubisky and Anthony took Mahomes and again, while neither are guaranteed NFL success, to get them in the 4th is an absolute no risk play in dynasty leagues that is totally worth doing.

Dynasty MetriX Impact

What I did after the draft was to align each prospects DMX score and see which teams scored the highest combined DMX score, here are the summary results:

Team DMX
@DynastyExpert 4.84
@FantasyRanks 4.08
@GeoffTheScout 3.57
@DynastySportsHQ 3.50
@Dynasty_Advice 2.71
@FFDynastyTrades 2.63
@DynastyHHPod 2.43
@TomDegenerate 2.04
@DynastyDorks 1.26
Grand Total 31.81

Anthony topped the list with a score of 4.84 and when you see the details below you’ll notice he chose three prospects with scores of 1.24 or better. All three of those prospects have a 68% chance of hitting based on our Dynasty MetriX historical database. A very good haul indeed. I came in second as my first round pick (Corey Davis) “only” scored a 1.05 as he had no combine or pro-day scores. That said, I had nobody under 0.96 and all where 1st or 2nd decile players. Willie Lovato also scored in the 4s with Christian McCaffrey and Evan Engram anchoring his haul. The Dynasty Dorks finished with a score of 1.26 having chosen two players with negative scores (Dede Westbrook and Joe Williams) and two players with mid-level positive scores (Leonard Fournette and Carlos Henderson). Fournette’s score is low as he was injured last season and didn’t do all of the combine skills, so it’s hard to blame them for that. I would say that their final two picks could be considered reaches. In my Dynasty MetriX database players with negative DMX scores hit only 4% of the time. If you want more information about the Dynasty MetriX philosophy, check out our 2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide. Here are the detailed lists of players and their DMX scores:

Team DMX
@DynastyExpert 4.84
Darboh, Amara FA WR 0.60
Jones, Zay FA WR 1.49
Mahomes, Patrick FA QB 1.51
Mixon, Joe FA RB 1.24
Davis, Corey FA WR 1.05
McNichols, Jeremy FA RB 0.96
Njoku, David FA TE 1.64
Trubisky, Mitch FA QB 1.10
@FantasyRanks 4.08
Engram, Evan FA TE 1.47
Ford, Isaiah FA WR 0.55
Hunt, Kareem FA RB 0.58
McCaffrey, Christian FA RB 1.48
@GeoffTheScout 3.57
Butt, Jake FA TE 0.60
Kupp, Cooper FA WR 0.64
Watson, Deshaun FA QB 1.38
Williams, Mike FA WR 0.94
@DynastySportsHQ 3.50
Hood, Elijah FA RB 0.10
Kizer, DeShone FA QB 1.19
Leggett, Jordan FA TE 0.92
Ross, John FA WR 1.28
@Dynasty_Advice 2.71
Conner, James FA RB 0.09
Cook, Dalvin FA RB 1.10
Dupre, Malachi FA WR 0.25
Foreman, D’Onta FA RB 1.26
@FFDynastyTrades 2.63
Cannon, KD FA WR 0.26
Gallman, Wayne FA RB 0.29
Samuel, Curtis FA WR 1.21
Smith-Schuster, JuJu FA WR 0.87
@DynastyHHPod 2.43
Howard, O.J. FA TE 1.38
Perine, Samaje FA RB 0.61
Taylor, Taywan FA WR 0.81
Zamora, Ishmael FA WR (0.37)
@TomDegenerate 2.04
Godwin, Chris FA WR 1.14
Kamara, Alvin FA RB 0.93
Stewart, ArDarius FA WR (0.28)
Williams, Jamaal FA RB 0.25
@DynastyDorks 1.26
Fournette, Leonard FA RB 0.86
Henderson, Carlos FA WR 0.94
Westbrook, Dede FA WR (0.28)
Williams, Joe FA RB (0.26)
Grand Total 31.81

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