ADP stats from MFL Keeper League rankings
David Johnson, RB ARI – At ADP 9 David Johnson is being valued as a top 4 back. And it’s quite possible he is. It’s also possible that teams scheme for him next year and slow him down. I can’t argue here that Johnson doesn’t have a ton of talent and did a great job as a rookie. He did. My concern is that he hasn’t proved his worth over a whole season yet and that presents enough risk for a 3rd round pick last year that I’d rather go down the list and grab a Devonta Freeman who is essentially in the same situation (productive but unproven) and grab a WR in the first that is in their prime and has proven production.
DeMarco Murray, RB TEN – At ADP 80 it’s interesting to me that Murray is getting pick right around the same place as Ameer Abdullah and TJ Yeldon, two 2nd year high potential backs. Meanwhile, the 28 year old Murray will be sharing the Titans backfield with rookie Derrick Henry and is not long for 30 years old. For dynasty purposes, why would you pick up Murray when you can grab a better bet in Abdullah or Yeldon?
Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN – Treadwell is being picked at ADP 42 right around Devante Parker and Kevin White. That’s insane in my book. Treadwell had good college production but has historically poor measurables . Not too mention Minnesota was 31st in the NFL last year in pass attempts. Certainly from a dynasty perpective Treadwell could develop into a quality WR. Putting him up with Parker and White, two metric freaks in better situations makes no sense to me.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR – Cam Newton was an elite QB without Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin will slot back into the WR1 spot for Carolina but I would not expect him to be targeted as often as Cam did his rookie season. Cam doesn’t need to target him that much, he has more assets at his disposal and in order to keep the defense off balance they will try to spread the ball around. I just feel that Benjamin, coming off an injury and re-integrating into this offense is going to be good, not great. At ADP 32 and 17 WR off the board, that’s too rich for my blood.
Andy Dalton, QB CIN – There has been an awful lot of turnover on the offensive side of the ball in Cincy at the WR position. Though the most impactful turnover is Hugh Jackson leaving for greener pastures. It’s unclear what the impact of Jackson leaving will be, but it’s hard to fathom that there is a ton of upside in that situation. Therefore would advise staying away from Dalton as anything other than a deep league pickup for depth. At ADP 94 slotted between Eli and Matt Stafford, I’m don’t think he’s worth it.