2016 Dynasty Rookie Rankings Post Draft Update

Rankings:  Top 50 | QB | RB | WR | TE | DE | DT | LB | CB | S

Our dynasty rookie rankings are updated post NFL draft.  All position changes have been considered based on scheme drafted into.  As expected Ezekiel Elliott is tops on the board by a long shot but there are some surprises in there too.  You can check out the links above to go to the list you want to see first and don’t forget to check out the top 50.

We are in the midst of creating and then posting several other rankings such as dynasty startup rankings, IDP rankings and May ADP rankings so stay tuned for more updates!

For Rookies, At DFF we utilize what we like to call the Quad Score. The Quad Score looks at the 8 metrics that NFL scouts evaluate for NFL prospects, including height, weight, 40-time, bench press, vertical leap, broad jump, shuttle run and 3-cone drill.

Of course, for a variety of reasons not everyone does each drill, so my method is to always take the metric from the combine (since everyone is together in the same environment using the same testing equipment) unless it is not available, then I go to the pro-day metric. If a drill was not performed by a prospect at either the combine or the pro day, that portion of the Quad Score is made to zero, so it has a neutral impact on the Quad Score results, it doesn’t hurt the prospect and it doesn’t help them in the scoring.

Once I have scores for all 8 metrics, I find the z-score for each metric by position. Z-score is a statistical measurement of a score’s relationship to the mean in a group of scores. What this means is that each score is normalized so that a positive score is greater than the mean and a negative score is less than the mean. So, when we compare across measures by z-score, the higher the number, the better the score and vice versa. This makes it very easy to compare athleticism across athletes both in the current class and in past classes. If your Quad Score is greater than zero you are more athletic than the average athlete and when your Quad Score is less than zero you are less athletic than the average athlete.

When the z-score for each metric is created I do one more thing, I calculate the speed score for each player and create the z-score for speed score. Speed score helps put 40-time into perspective by incorporating weight into the equation. Once we have all of these speed scores and z-scores calculated I pull them together in what I like to call Quad Score. The Quad Score, are four combinations of z-scores that add up to a sum total score and measure what parts of that sum score are deficient vs. proficient. The four combinations are:

Speed = z-score of the speed score (which again, also incorporates weight)
Agility = z-score of the shuttle run and 3 cone drill
Leg Power = z-score of the vertical leap and broad jump
Arm Strength = z-score of the bench press

The Quad Score does not incorporate height, which is the only metric of the 8 that is not incorporated into the Quad Score. Once all of this is calculated, add up the quad scores for a total Quad Score. The higher the total score, the more athletic the prospect of course, though that does not tell the whole story. by segmenting the metrics into four distinct types we’re able to see what each prospect excels at and what may be a weakness. In other words, two prospects may end up with a Quad Score of 1.00 but they could reach that score in very different ways. If you have, for example, two RBs with a Quad Score of 1.00, one may have speed and agility and the other may have leg power and arm strength. Both scored a 1.00 overall, but they are very different prospects and only by looking at the quad scores can we see it.

Now, you have to understand what the Quad Score can’t tell us. Especially when you’re looking at combine and pro day information. At the combine and pro days we measure prospects athleticism. Athleticism doesn’t translate to the field when it’s not combined with football intelligence, field vision and spacial awareness on the part of said prospect. It also won’t translate when you don’t have scheme fit, coaching fit and an available starting spot on the depth chart. Therefore, in our rankings you will see low AS Scores higher on the list and vice versa because we recognize this is only one measure of evaluation, though one that projects much of the potential of an NFL prospect.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.